Countertrend ?

  One of my favorite ways to contextualize market trends is to divide long periods of time into secular bull and bear markets. When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets. The best examples...

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10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • When is a Bear Market Over? Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time. Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t...

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A conversation with Jim Simons

  During the 2022 Abel lectures Jim Simons had a conversation with Nils A. Baas and Nicolai Tangen. The lectures were held at The University of Oslo, May 25th… A conversation with Jim Simons: Mathematics, Common Sense and Good Luck Source: The Abel Prize, June 13, 2022   The post A conversation with Jim Simons appeared first on The Big Picture.

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10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • An American Catastrophe: The secret history of the U.S. government’s family-separation policy. We need to take away children.” (The Atlantic) • A Uranium Ghost Town in the Making: Time and again, mining company Homestake and government agencies promised to clean...

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MiB: Kenneth Tropin, Graham Capital Management

    This week, we speak with Kenneth Tropin, chairman and founder of Graham Capital Management, a multi-strategy quantitative hedge fund with $18 billion in assets under management. Prior to founding GCM in 1994, Tropin was president and chief executive officer of hedge fund John W. Henry & Company, and has worked with such legendary traders as...

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of percolated coffee, grab a seat on the canoe, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Revenge of the Humans: How Discretionary Managers Can Crush Systematics: Discretionary managers are scurrying to incorporate new data sets, but lack the understanding of how to analyze their efficacy and more importantly,...

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Back to Camp Kotok!

  I am away this week for my annual sojourn to Maine, a trip I have been making since 2007. Light posting this week, but here is my 2019 write-up for Businessweek. Enjoy!     Talking Rates in the Maine Woods With Economists Over Good Wine Taking place right before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the gathering is a chance for money managers,...

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10 Friday AM Reads

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • This 20% Nasdaq gain doesn’t mean we’re in a new bull market: Explosive rallies are actually more common in bear markets (Marketwatch) • What the Great Mayonnaise Inflation Mystery Can Tell Us About Prices. Measuring price changes can be fiendishly difficult and highly subjective. Mayonnaise is a perfect example....

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2023 Taiga Orca EV Jet Ski

I like anything with an engine, especially cars and boats. This also includes all manner of personal watercraft as well. But as much as I enjoy jet skiing, I only take it in small doses; the noise and vibration usually mean that 30 minutes or so is plenty. If only we could create a smoother ride, less noise, and zero pollution. Enter the Taiga Orca....

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10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads: • Private Equity Doesn’t Want You to Read This: Not only do private equity partners make money even if their companies blow up; they also get a pretty good deal from the government on what they earn. Private equity funds generally charge their investors two different fees: a management fee of 2 percent of invested assets...

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