Policy Research Working Paper | Macroeconomics_and_Economic_Growth | World Bank

Policy Research Working Paper on Macroeconomics_and_Economic_Growth, from the World Bank

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How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?

Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue...

Economic effects of the Syrian war and the spread of the Islamic state on the Levant

This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt...

Sukuk markets : a proposed approach for development

The issuance of sukuk, as an instrument in Islamic finance, has been growing in recent years. Many policy makers and businesses are looking at the sukuk markets as sources of long-term financing. The paper identifies key issues impeding further development of sukuk markets globally, namely, standardization of structures and practices, investor protection...

Party age and party color : new results on the political economy of redistribution and inequality

This paper advances research on inequality with unique, new data on income distribution in 61 countries, including 20 Latin American countries, to explore the effects of political parties on redistribution. First, consistent with a central -- but still contested -- assumption of the political economy literature, left-wing governments redistribute more....

Local foundations for better governance : A Review of Ghazala Mansuri and Vijayendra Rao's Localizing Development

In Localizing Development, Mansuri and Rao survey theory and evidence for development strategies based on local community empowerment. This note extends their theoretical argument by focusing on local government as a vital source of new leadership. Local leaders who provide better public service can prove their qualifications for higher office, but...

Incomplete integration and contagion of debt distress in economic unions

This paper compares different fiscal integration schemes on the basis of their ability to finance public investments and resilience to debt distress and contagion. Complete integration schemes, where a central authority chooses the level of public investments with productivity-enhancing externalities across different jurisdictions, are shown to be superior...

Trade and civil conflict : revisiting the cross-country evidence

This paper revisits and expands the evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the 1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the prices of a country's exported commodities raise the country's risk of civil conflict and its duration. The effect on conflict risk is mainly...

Climate change and poverty -- an analytical framework

Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on...

Structural reforms and labor market outcomes : international panel data evidence

This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labor force participation rates. Together these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labor market and the aggregate welfare...

Importing high food prices by exporting : rice prices in Lao PDR

This paper shows how a developing country, Lao PDR, imports high glutinous rice prices by exporting its staple food to neighboring countries, Vietnam and Thailand. Lao PDR has extensive export controls on rice, generating a sizable difference between domestic and international prices. Controls are relaxed after good harvests, leading to a surge in exports...

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