BIS research papers

Research papers from the Bank for International Settlements, including the Quarterly Review, BIS Papers and BIS Working Papers series.

Latest articles

Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?

IFC Conference on external statistics "Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?", co-organised with the Bank of Portugal (BoP) and the European Central Bank (ECB), 17-18 February 2020, Lisbon, Portugal.

Banking across borders: Are Chinese banks different?

We explore the global footprint of Chinese banks and compare it with that of other bank nationalities.

Stress-testing banks during the Covid-19 pandemic

FSI Briefs No 11, October 2020. In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of authorities that regularly conduct stress tests on individual banks adjusted their approach. They performed ad hoc exercises to assess the vulnerability of banking sectors as a whole. These exercises are different from regular ones in terms of key features such as objectives,...

Bankruptcies, unemployment and reallocation from Covid-19

The expected wave of business failures in the Covid-19 recession has yet to materialise, due in part to policy support, but also reflecting the inherent lag between declines in GDP and insolvencies. Bankruptcies weigh heavily on labour markets. Unemployment typically increases three times more if a fall in GDP is accompanied by a similar-sized increase...

The outlook for business bankruptcies

Economic growth and forward-looking indicators of default risk inferred from equity markets, two variables that together predict business bankruptcies in advanced economies, show bankruptcies rising significantly by the end of 2021. Projections of real GDP growth embedded in the consensus forecast account for the bulk of this projected increase. Unlike...

At the crossroads in the transition away from LIBOR - from overnight to term rates

This note evaluates ways of how new loans can be based on risk-free overnight (O/N) rates, the chosen successors to LIBOR (e.g. SOFR in the US). So far, O/N rates have not been widely adopted in the loan market, as this market is used to know the term rate at the beginning of an interest period. The loan market would prefer to replace LIBOR with another...

Central bank digital currencies: foundational principles and core features

Central banks have been providing trusted money to the public for hundreds of years as part of their public policy objectives. Yet the world is changing. To evolve and pursue their public policy objectives in a digital world, central banks are actively researching the pros and cons of offering a digital currency to the public (a "general purpose" central...

How does international capital flow?

Gross capital flows play a central role in today's policy debates. Yet current theory largely relies on net flow models of saving and current accounts. This limits the scope of policy advice. We extend the standard open economy macroeconomic model to include credit creation, thus allowing us to study gross capital flows.

Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability

This paper studies the effects of sterilized foreign exchange market intervention in a model with financial frictions and imperfect capital mobility.

Payment aspects of financial inclusion: application tools

CPMI report: Payment aspects of financial inclusion: application tools, September 2020

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