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Tuesday: Housing Starts

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Rates in MonthsMortgage rates had a mixed showing last week. They started out high before improving through Thursday. Finally, they took a step back up on Friday. Now at the start of the new week, the upward momentum is continuing. [30 year fixed 3.21%]emphasis addedTuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing...

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in September; Adding Austin, California, Des Moines, Houston and Maryland

Today, in the Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in SeptemberExcerpt: Inventory in San Diego is at an all time low, whereas inventory in Denver and Sacramento is up more than double from the all time low earlier this year.Austin and Sacramento are two of the few areas with inventory up YoY. The C.A.R. reported today that inventory in 40%...

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.28%"

Note: This is as of October 10th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 2.28%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 34 basis points from 2.62% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 2.28% as of...

October 18th COVID-19: Data Released On Monday is Always Low and Revised Up

The CDC is the source for all data.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 408,265,959, as of six days ago 403,576,826, or 0.78 million doses per day.COVID Metrics  TodayWeekAgoGoal Percent fully Vaccinated57.0%56.4%≥70.0%1 Fully Vaccinated (millions)189.1187.4≥2321 New Cases per Day367,76391,262≤5,0002 Hospitalized350,75060,078≤3,0002...

Housing Inventory Oct 18th Update: Inventory Down Slightly Week-over-week

Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of October 15th, inventory was at 424 thousand (7 day average), compared to 554 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 23.6%.Compared to the same week in 2019,...

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 80 in October

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 80, up from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.From the NAHB: Strong Demand Boosts Builder Confidence Despite Supply Chain DisruptionsStrong consumer demand helped push builder confidence...

Industrial Production Decreased 1.3 Percent in September

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity UtilizationIndustrial production fell 1.3 percent in September after moving down 0.1 percent in August; output was previously reported to have risen 0.4 percent in August. In September, manufacturing output decreased 0.7 percent: The production of motor vehicles and parts fell 7.2 percent, as shortages...

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.This data is as of October 17th. Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total...

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 17, 2021• Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"?Monday:• At 9:15 AM ET, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.5%.• At 10:00 AM, The October NAHB homebuilder...

Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"? Some comments on an interview with Ivy Zelman

Today, in the Newsletter: Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"?Excerpt: On Friday, Sara Eisen asked: “Do you think this hot housing market gets even hotter?”And Zelman answered:"No. I don’t. I think the housing market is already starting to show some moderation. And I think that it is going to become even more evident as rates are starting...

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