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FOMC Preview: Probably Too Soon for Hints on Tapering

Expectations are there will be no change to rate policy when the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.Analysts will be looking for any hints as to when the Fed will start to taper asset purchases, although it is probably too early - especially given possible economic downside risks due to the resurgence in COVID cases - for the Fed to drop...

July 24th COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 3rd.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 22nd.This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 341,039,972, as of a week ago 337,239,448. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over...

Schedule for Week of July 25, 2021

The key report this week is the advance estimate of Q2 GDP.Other key reports include June New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays for June, and Case-Shiller house prices for May.For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.----- Monday, July...

July 23rd COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 6th.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 25th.This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 340,363,922, as of a week ago 336,604,158. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over...

July Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Sales to Continue Free-Fall"

From WardsAuto: July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Continue Free-Fall from Springtime Peak (pay content)Wards notes low inventories and supply issues (mircochips) are impacting sales.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).The Wards forecast of 14.8 million SAAR, would be down...

REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021

Some interesting information from the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong. With limited supply in the market, homes typically sold within 17 days (24 days one year ago), as buyer competition continues. However, the REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased...

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 8%

The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q2 GDP next Thursday. The consensus forecast is for real GDP to increase 8.2% in Q2, from Q1, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).From BofA: We expect growth of 8.5% qoq saar in 2Q from 6.4% qoq saar in 1Q. [July 23 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of July 20th.From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Flat for Second Consecutive WeekNot much to report with this week’s snapshot of our McDash Flash daily Forbearance Tracker data, as we’ve come to expect...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 9% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.The occupancy rate is down 8.7% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Reaches Pre-Pandemic Level While ADR Drops SlightlyU.S. weekly hotel occupancy...

July 22nd COVID-19, New Cases, Hospitalizations, Vaccinations

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 8th.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 28th.This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 339,763,765, as of a week ago 336,054,953. Average doses last week: 0.53 million per day.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over...

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