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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million in March, down 3.2% from February’s preliminary pace but up 12.5% from last...

April 16th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Over 200 Million Doses Administered

Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.According to the CDC, 202.3 million doses have...

California March Housing: Sales up 20% YoY, Active Listings down 51% YoY

The CAR reported: California median home price reaches new all-time high in March as nearly two-thirds of homes sell above asking price, C.A.R. reportsFierce competition drove California’s median home price to reach a new record high in March, while the state’s housing market continued its momentum with sales remaining solid heading into the spring...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of April 13th.From Black Knight: Forbearances Improve for Seventh Straight WeekThe country saw a modest decrease in the number of active forbearance plans this week, falling by just 1,000 but still marking the...

Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%

Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data), have caught up with the forecasts of economists, as data for March is released.From Merrill Lynch: Despite robust retail sales growth, it was less bullish than our forecast, resulting in a 0.5pp reduction to our 1Q GDP tracking estimate, to 6.5% qoq saar. [Apr 16 estimate]emphasis...

Comments on March Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.739 Million Annual Rate in MarchThis was the highest level for starts since June 2006.Total housing starts in March were above expectations, and starts in January and February were revised up. Single family starts increased in March, and were up 41% year-over-year (starts declined at the beginning of the pandemic). The...

Housing Starts increased to 1.739 Million Annual Rate in March

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,739,000. This is 19.4 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,457,000 and is 37.0 percent above the March 2020 rate of 1,269,000. Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of...

Friday: Housing Starts

Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.600 million SAAR, up from 1.421 million SAAR in February.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for April).• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2021

April 15th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Almost 200 Million Doses Administered

Note: I'm looking forward to not posting this daily! I've been posting this data daily for over a year, and I'll stop once all three of these criteria are met:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine,2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and3) hospitalizations are below 3,000.According to the CDC, 198.3 million doses have...

Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales Up 14% YoY, Active Inventory Down 69% YoY

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):1) Overall sales were at 9,806 in March, up 13.7% from 8,626 in March 2020.2) Active inventory was at 4,383, down 69.3% from 14,257 in March 2020.3) Months of supply decreased to 0.92 in March from 2.11 in March 2020. This is very low.Sales are reported at the close of escrow,...

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