Calculated Risk

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July 9 COVID-19 Test Results

Note: There was an error in initial release. Now corrected and this post updated.The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to...

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 26% year-over-year in May

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by -25.5% (-72.9 billion vehicle miles) for May 2020 as compared with May 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 213.2 billion vehicle miles.The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for May 2020 is 199.8 billion miles, a -26.1% (-70.6 billion vehicle...

Reis on Q2 Office, Mall and Apartment Vacancy Rates

From Reis economist Barbara Byrne Denham: The Apartment Vacancy Rate was unchanged in the second quarter but increased 0.2% from a year ago; Asking and Effective Rents declined 0.4% in the quarter after rising as much in the first quarter.The Office Vacancy Rate rose 0.1% as occupancy declined by 977,000 square feet; the Average Office Asking Rent declined...

Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims

A few comments:On a monthly basis, most analysts focus on initial unemployment claims for the BLS reference week of the employment report.  For July, the BLS reference week will be July 12th through the 18th, and initial claims for that week will be released on Thursday, July 23rd.Note that a couple of states have not released Pandemic Unemployment...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,314,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,314,000, a decrease of 99,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 14,000 from 1,427,000 to 1,413,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,437,250, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous week's revised...

Thursday: Unemployment Claims

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 1.400 million initial claims, down from 1.427 million the previous week.

July 8 COVID-19 Test Results, Record Positive, Highest Percent Positive since Early May

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.According to Dr. Jha of Harvard's...

Houston Real Estate in June: Sales Up 18.3% YoY, Inventory Down 17.5% YoY, Concerns going forward

From the HAR: Houston Home Buyers Pump Up the Volume in JuneA flurry of homes going under contract in May after COVID-19-related stay-at-home orders expired led to a surge of closings in June, driving home sales volumes back up to levels considered more normal for summertime in Houston – and even beyond 2019’s record pace. However, renewed coronavirus...

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in July

Without further disaster relief, there will a significant housing and financial issue.From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 77.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of July 6The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 77.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by July 6...

Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 34.9% of Households Expect Loss in Income; 25.9% Concerned about Housing

Note: The details in the pulse survey this week are concerning - especially about loss in income and concern about housing.First, from @ernietedeschi The @uscensusbureau Household Pulse Survey, which performed admirably in anticipating the June jobs report, now shows employment has fallen by about 1.3 million cumulatively over the last 2 weeks.Some...

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