Calculated Risk

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Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

My November Employment PreviewGoldman November Payrolls PreviewFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET.Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 500 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.7%.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms through...

December 3 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations

Note: The data was distorted over the holiday weekend.The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day...

Goldman November Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 450k in November ... The breadth and severity of the virus resurgence suggests a larger labor market impact than during in the second wave ... We estimate the unemployment rate declined a tenth to 6.8% ... reflecting an increase in household employment...

November Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. The consensus is for 500 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.7%.First, there are a wide range of estimates.  For example, from Merrill Lynch economists: "We look for November jobs report to show nonfarm payroll growth pulled back to 150k...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 28.5% Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 28 NovemberU.S. weekly hotel occupancy fell to its lowest level since late May, according to the latest data from STR through 28 November.22-28 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 36.2% (-28.5%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$92.49 (-17.8%)• Revenue per...

ISM Services Index Decreased to 55.9% in November

The November ISM Services index was at 55.9%, down from 56.6% last month. The employment index increased to 51.5%, from 50.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI™ at 55.9%; November 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 712,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending November 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 75,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 778,000 to 787,000. The 4-week moving average was 739,500, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average....

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Services

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Mortgage Rates Continue Defying Bond Market Weakness Although it was the focus of yesterday's discussion, the ability of the mortgage market to hold steady in the face of bond market weakness continues to impress. ... Regardless of the movement, the average lender remains very close to all-time lows and well...

December 2 COVID-19 Test Results; Over 100,000 Hospitalizations

Note: The data was distorted over the holiday weekend.The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day...

Fed's Beige Book: "modest or moderate" Growth in Economic Activity, Some Districts see "No growth"

Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia based on information collected on or before November 20, 2020."Most Federal Reserve Districts have characterized economic expansion as modest or moderate since the prior Beige Book period. However, four Districts described little or no growth, and five narratives...

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