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Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of May 22, 2022• Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design: "Built for rent" IncreasingMonday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 33 and DOW futures are up 200 (fair value).Oil prices were...

Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design: "Built for rent" Increasing

Along with the monthly housing starts for April last week, the Census Bureau released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q1 2022.This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and condos built for...

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Lawler: The Sharp increase in Monthly Payments in Selected Metro Areas• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in April• April Housing Starts: All-Time Record Housing Units Under Construction• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets• A Slowdown in Showings• Lawler: Mortgage/Treasury...

Schedule for Week of May 22, 2022

The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, April New Home Sales, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.Note: The Census Bureau is expected to release "National, State, and County housing units" from the 2020 Census sometime in May.-----...

Q2 GDP Forecasts: 2.5% to 3.0%

From BofA: We have revised down our GDP forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 2.6% and 1.5% from 2.7% and 1.8% previously. [Q2 3.0% revised down from 3.5%] [May 20 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman: we left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.6% (qoq ar) and our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 unchanged at -1.5%. [May 19 estimate]And...

Lawler: Lawler: The Sharp increase in Monthly Payments in Selected Metro Areas

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: The Sharp increase in Monthly Payments in Selected Metro AreasExcerpt: According to Mortgage News Daily, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for a prime borrower putting 20% down increased to 5.45% earlier this week from 3.14% a year ago.  Such an increase would result in a...

Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Yet Another Record Low in April"

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Yet Another Record Low in April, Driven by Continued Improvement Among Seriously Past-Due Loans• The national delinquency rate fell to 2.80% in April, down four basis points from March, hitting a new record low for the second consecutive month• Overall delinquencies are down nearly...

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 5% Year-over-year

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released this morning from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 14, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory moved convincingly into...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 5.9% Compared to Same Week in 2019

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Rates Outpace Pre-Pandemic Levels by 10%U.S. hotel performance improved from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through May 14.May 8-14, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):• Occupancy: 66.5% (-5.9%)• Average daily rate (ADR): $148.31 (+10.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $98.59...

More Analysis on April Existing Home Sales

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in AprilExcerpt: Sales in April (5.61 million SAAR) were down 2.4% from the previous month and were 5.9% below the April 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022. Sales declined 5.9% year-over-year...

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