Calculated Risk

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Sacramento Housing in August: Sales decline Slightly YoY, Active Inventory down 50% YoY

Note that August sales are for contracts typically signed in June and July.From SacRealtor.org: August 2020 Statistics – Sacramento Housing Market – Single Family HomesAugust closed with 1,560 sales, down 11.9% from the 1,755 sales in July. Compared to one year ago (1,567), the current figure is down .4%....The Active Listing Inventory decreased 2.2%...

September 19 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,007,204 test results...

Schedule for Week of September 20, 2020

The key reports this week are August New and Existing Home sales.For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.Fed Chair Powell testifies three times this week.----- Monday, September 21st -----8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.12:00...

September 18 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 903,627 test results...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in August

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.92 million in August, up 1.0% from July’s preliminary pace and up 9.0% from last August’s...

Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 14.3% for 2020:Q3 and 5.3% for 2020:Q4. [Sept 18 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. [Sept 17...

BLS: August Unemployment rates down in 41 states

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in August in 41 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 7 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of September 15th.From Fourth Consecutive Week of Forbearance ImprovementOverall, the total number of mortgages in forbearance continued to improve this week, as the number of active plans declined another...

September 17 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 776,769 test results...

Philly Fed Manufacturing "continued to expand" in September

Note: Be careful with diffusion indexes. This shows a rebound off the bottom - some improvement from May to September - but doesn't show the level of activity.Earlier from the Philly Fed: September 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the September...

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