Gary Robinson's Rants

Rants on Python, politics, and other assorted stuff.

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COVID-19 Prediction Update

[A note on these predictions: the following is a coldly analytical look at fatalities counts. Every single death is an enormous personal tragedy to the families, friends, and associates of the person who died, and such an analysis seems to completely ignores that fact. And yet, only by such pure analysis can we gain the tools needed to successfully...

COVID-19 Prediction Update

[A note on these predictions: the following is a coldly analytical look at fatalities counts. Every single death is an enormous personal tragedy to the families, friends, and associates of the person who died, and such an analysis seems to...

US fatalities growth rate decreasing?

As of April 19, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting  60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]  (Down from their  prediction of 68,841 a few days earlier, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.)Essentially, this is a contest between the Stupid-Simple  Model (SSM) and the IHME. On April 12, the IHME...

US fatalities growth rate decreasing?

As of April 19, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] (Down from their prediction of 68,841 a few days earlier, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made...

The Stupid-Simple Model still appears to be beating the IMHE

As of April 17, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting  60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]  (Down from their  prediction of 68,841 yesterday, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.)Essentially, this is a contest between the Stupid-Simple  Model (SSM) and the IHME. On April 12, the IHME predicted...

The Stupid-Simple Model still appears to be beating the IMHE

As of April 17, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] (Down from their prediction of 68,841 yesterday, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.)...

COVID-19 Forecast Apr 13

As of April 13, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is still predicting 61,545 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any other day since the 6th. Maybe the last couple days are the start of the drop that will make it plausible that will have...

COVID-19 Forecast Apr 13

As of April 13, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is still predicting 61,545 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any...

COVID-19 Forecast Apr 12

As of April 12, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 61,545 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]  Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any other day since the 6th. Maybe this is the start of the drop that will make it plausible that will have so few deaths by...

COVID-19 Forecast Apr 12

As of April 12, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 61,545 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any other...

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