[A note on these predictions: the following is a coldly analytical look at fatalities counts. Every single death is an enormous personal tragedy to the families, friends, and associates of the person who died, and such an analysis seems to completely ignores that fact. And yet, only by such pure analysis can we gain the tools needed to successfully...

[A note on these predictions: the following is a coldly analytical look at fatalities counts. Every single death is an enormous personal tragedy to the families, friends, and associates of the person who died, and such an analysis seems to...

As of April 19, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting  60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]  (Down from their  prediction of 68,841 a few days earlier, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.) Essentially, this is a contest between the Stupid-Simple  Model (SSM) and the IHME. On April 12, the...

As of April 19, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] (Down from their prediction of 68,841 a few days earlier, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made...

As of April 17, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting  60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]  (Down from their  prediction of 68,841 yesterday, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.)Essentially, this is a contest between the Stupid-Simple  Model (SSM) and the IHME. On April 12, the IHME predicted...

As of April 17, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1] (Down from their prediction of 68,841 yesterday, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.)...