National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers

The Latest NBER Working Papers

Latest articles

How to Talk When a Machine is Listening: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI -- by Sean Cao, Wei Jiang, Baozhong Yang, Alan L. Zhang

This paper analyzes how corporate disclosure has been reshaped by machine processors, employed by algorithmic traders, robot investment advisors, and quantitative analysts. Our findings indicate that increasing machine and AI readership, proxied by machine downloads, motivates firms to prepare filings that are more friendly to machine parsing and processing....

Externalities as Arbitrage -- by Benjamin M. Hébert

How can we assess whether macro-prudential regulations are having their intended effects? If these regulations are optimal, their marginal benefit of addressing externalities should equal their marginal cost of distorting risk-sharing. These risk-sharing distortions will manifest as trading opportunities that constrained intermediaries are unable to...

Liquidity and Volatility -- by Itamar Drechsler, Alan Moreira, Alexi Savov

Liquidity provision is a bet against private information: if private information turns out to be higher than expected, liquidity providers lose. Since information generates volatility, and volatility co-moves across assets, liquidity providers have a negative exposure to aggregate volatility shocks. As aggregate volatility shocks carry a very large...

Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty -- by Scott R. Baker, Aniket Baksy, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Jonathan A. Rodden

We examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. Uncertainty shows a clear tendency to rise in the months leading up to elections. Average EPU values are 13% higher in the month of and the month prior to an election than in other months of the same national election cycle, conditional on country effects,...

Millionaires Speak: What Drives Their Personal Investment Decisions? -- by Svetlana Bender, James J. Choi, Danielle Dyson, Adriana Z. Robertson

We survey 2,484 U.S. individuals with at least $1 million of investable assets about how well leading academic theories describe their financial beliefs and decisions. The most important factors determining portfolio equity share are professional advice, time until retirement, personal experiences, rare disaster risk, and health risk. Beliefs about...

An Analysis of the Performance of Target Date Funds -- by John B. Shoven, Daniel B. Walton

This paper presents a thorough evaluation of target date funds for the period 2010-2020. These funds have grown enormously in assets, reaching $1.4 trillion by the end of 2019. They account for approximately 24 percent of all of the assets in 401(k) accounts. The paper reports on the results of a style analysis evaluation of TDFs which results in their...

Social Finance -- by Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel

We review an empirical literature that studies the role of social interactions in driving economic and financial decision making. We first summarize recent work that documents an important role of social interactions in explaining household decisions in housing and mortgage markets. This evidence shows, for example, that there are large peer effects...

Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-on/Risk-off and Emerging Market Tail Risk -- by Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman, Christian Lundblad

This paper characterizes the implications of risk-on/risk-off shocks for emerging market capital flows and returns. We document that these shocks have important implications not only for the median of emerging markets flows and returns but also for the left tail. Further, while there are some differences in the effects across bond vs. equity markets...

Has the Stock Market Become Less Representative of the Economy? -- by Frederik P. Schlingemann, René M. Stulz

The firms listed on the stock market in aggregate as well as the top market capitalization firm contribute less to total non-farm employment and GDP now than in the 1970s. A major reason for this development is the decline of manufacturing and the growth of the service economy as firms providing services are less likely to be listed on exchanges. We...

Renegotiation in Debt Chains -- by Vincent Glode, Christian Opp

We develop a tractable model of strategic debt renegotiation in which businesses are sequentially interconnected through their liabilities. This financing structure, which we refer to as a debt chain, gives rise to externalities as a lender’s willingness to provide concessions to his privately-informed borrower depends on how this lender’s own liabilities...

Discover, share and read the best on the web

Subscribe to RSS Feeds, Blogs, Podcasts, Twitter searches, Facebook pages, even Email Newsletters! Get unfiltered news feeds or filter them to your liking.

Get Inoreader
Inoreader - Subscribe to RSS Feeds, Blogs, Podcasts, Twitter searches, Facebook pages, even Email Newsletters!