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Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media

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Has Inflation Peaked?

  Has inflation peaked? When we look at the data, there are encouraging signs in various sectors. Three of the most signficant are Automobiles, Homes, and Labor/Wages: • Automobiles: The semiconductor shortage sent new car supplies down and prices higher; this also helped drive used car prices up. But industry insiders are confident semi supplies...

10 Thursday AM Reads

My morning train WFH reads: • America’s gun culture – in seven charts Firearms deaths are a fixture in American life. There were 1.5 million of them between 1968 and 2017 – that’s higher than the number of soldiers killed in every US conflict since the War for Independence in 1776. In 2020, more than 45,000 Americans died at the end of a barrel of...

Aspirational Pricing

    Let’s talk real estate. I am a magnet for residential real estate questions. Having more or less gotten the 2000s RRE mess right, I get regular questions about real estate investments, pricing, cycles, and values. I don’t always know the answer, but can usually find the person who does. This current housing market is unusually confusing, for...

10 Wednesday AM Reads

My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • How to Not Panic: Studying history, we come to realize that a lot of what we experience isn’t as unique as we think it is. The U.S. stock market typically declines by at least: 10% every other year 30% every 4-5 years 50%+ once a generation (Of Dollars And Data) • The bull market minted millions of day traders....

CPI: Imperfect But Useful

    Any attempt to depict the universe with only symbols and numbers runs into an obvious challenge: It is almost it is all but impossible to create a perfect construct abstractly. But we can create models that are good enough to allow us to analyze the world. We can find interesting correlations, and occasionally causations, and can develop a better...

10 Tuesday AM Reads

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • The Stock Market’s Drop Is Hitting Many 401(k)s Harder This Time Target-date funds, a popular retirement-savings option, are more heavily invested in stocks than investors might think. (Wall Street Journal) see also Market Pain Isn’t Over, but You Will Get Through This Head-spinning volatility in financial...

Two Scenarios

    It’s a given that no one knows what the future holds. But that does not mean we merely shrug our shoulders and stumble blindly into whatever comes next. We can consider the probabilities, map out higher (and lower) possible outcomes, and wargame various scenarios. We can ponder how recent history led us to the present circumstances. Let’s consider...

Transcript: Gerard O’Reilly

     The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Gerard O’Reilly, DFA CIO & Co-CEO, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, Bloomberg, and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS...

10 Monday AM Reads

My back to work morning train WFH reads: • The Worst Years Ever in the Stock Market If the year were to end today, 2022 would rank as the 7th worst calendar year return for the U.S. stock market since just before the Great Depression. (Wealth of Common Sense) • A $60 Billion Crypto Collapse Reveals a New Kind of Bank Run: Terra’s coins were supposed...

Exile On Main Street: 50th Anniversary

    Listen along on your favored streamer — here is Amazon Music.   1. Exile On Main Street, 50th Anniversary is today (May 26 in the UK). It’s hard to convey how big “Sticky Fingers” was, how it permeated the culture, burned its way into the consciousness of America. The party didn’t start until the needle was dropped on “Brown Sugar,” it was...

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