Calculated Risk

Finance and Economics

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Housing Inventory March 8th Update: At Record Lows

One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021?Tracking inventory will be very important this year.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.As of March 5th, inventory was at 318 thousand (7 day average), compared...

March 8 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 8th:"So far, 92.1 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.17 million doses per day were administered."Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more. And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)Click on...

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.20%"

Note: This is as of February 28th.From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.20%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 5.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.20% as of...

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for January

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for January today. According to Black Knight, 5.85% of mortgages were delinquent in January, down from 6.08% of mortgages in December, and up from 3.22% in January 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.32% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.46% a year ago.This gives a total...

Las Vegas Real Estate in February: Sales up 13% YoY, Inventory down 57% YoY

This report is for closed sales in February; sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were mostly signed in December and January.The Las Vegas Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices set new record while supply shrinks; LVR housing statistics for February 2021LVR reported a total of 3,489 existing local homes,...

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed.   IMPORTANT: Be safe now - if all goes well, we could all be vaccinated by Q2 2021.----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. Click on graph for larger...

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of March 7, 2021• The Employment Situation is Far Worse than the Unemployment Rate IndicatesMonday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are up 22 and DOW futures are up 216 (fair value).Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $67.31 per...

March 7 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations; Over 90 Million Doses Administered

SPECIAL NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project ends today (March 7th). Awesome job. Starting tomorrow, I will post from different sources.From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 7th:"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 90.4 million doses have been given....

The Employment Situation is Far Worse than the Unemployment Rate Indicates

The headline unemployment rate of 6.2% significantly understates the current situation. Here is a table that shows the current number of unemployed and the unemployment rate (as of February 2021).  Then I calculated the unemployment rate by including the number of people that have left the labor force since early 2020, and the expected growth in the...

March 6 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations

SPECIAL NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th.From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Mar 6th. "In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 87.9 million doses have been given. In the last week, an average of 2.16 million doses per...

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