Calculated Risk

Finance and Economics

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Q3 GDP Forecasts

From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 14.3% for 2020:Q3 and 5.3% for 2020:Q4. [Sept 18 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. [Sept 17...

BLS: August Unemployment rates down in 41 states

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment SummaryUnemployment rates were lower in August in 41 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 7 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. All 50 states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier. The national unemployment...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of September 15th.From Fourth Consecutive Week of Forbearance ImprovementOverall, the total number of mortgages in forbearance continued to improve this week, as the number of active plans declined another...

September 17 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 776,769 test results...

Philly Fed Manufacturing "continued to expand" in September

Note: Be careful with diffusion indexes. This shows a rebound off the bottom - some improvement from May to September - but doesn't show the level of activity.Earlier from the Philly Fed: September 2020 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the September...

CAR on California August Housing: Sales up 15% YoY, Active Listings down 50% YoY, Sales-to-date Down 7% Compared to 2019

The CAR reported: California housing market continues recovery as median home price breaks $700,000 mark, C.A.R. reportsCalifornia’s housing market continued to improve in August as home sales climbed to their highest level in more than a decade as the median home price broke last month’s record and hit another high, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®...

Comments on August Housing Starts

Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.416 Million Annual Rate in AugustTotal housing starts in August were below expectations, however starts in June and July were revised up, combined. The slight weakness in August was due to volatile multi-family sector.Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to housing starts.The...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 860,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 860,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 884,000 to 893,000. The 4-week moving average was 912,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the previous week's revised average....

Housing Starts decreased to 1.416 Million Annual Rate in August

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. This is 5.1 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,492,000, but is 2.8 percent above the August 2019 rate of 1,377,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 1,021,000;...

Thursday: Housing Starts, Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.470 million SAAR, down from 1.496 million SAAR.• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The early consensus is for a 900 thousand initial claims, up from 884 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing...

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