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FOMC Preview: 25bp Hike

Expectations are the FOMC will announce a 25bp rate increase in the federal funds rate and analysts will be looking for any mention of a possible pause in rate hikes at the March FOMC meeting.From Merrill Lynch: "At the February FOMC meeting, we look for the Fed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.50-4.75%. ... incoming...

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: New Home Sales at 616,000 Annual Rate in December; Previous 3 Months Revised Down Sharply

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:• New Home Sales at 616,000 Annual Rate in December; Previous 3 Months Revised Down Sharply• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in December• 1.51 million Total Housing Completions in 2022 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007• Has Housing "Bottomed"?This is usually published 4 to 6 times...

Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.----- Monday, January 30th -----10:30...

COVID Jan 27, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data is now weekly.Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666.COVID Metrics  NowWeekAgoGoal New Cases per Week2295,140332,606≤35,0001 Hospitalized229,41134,723≤3,0001 Deaths per Week23,7563,948≤3501 1my goals to stop weekly posts,2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths🚩 Increasing...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.2% Compared to Same Week in 2019

From CoStar: STR: MLK Day Leads to Slightly Lower US Weekly Hotel PerformanceWith the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, U.S. hotel performance came in slightly lower than the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Jan. 21.Jan. 15-21, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):• Occupancy: 54.2% (-6.2%)• Average daily rate (ADR):...

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 69% YoY; New Listings Down 5% YoY

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Jan 21, 2023. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory growth continued to climb with...

Has Housing "Bottomed"?

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Has Housing "Bottomed"?Brief excerpt: I’ve heard some positive comments from a number of real estate agents in the last week about the existing home market. ...Activity is still down sharply year-over-year (YoY), but the YoY decline is getting smaller.And some upbeat comments on new home sales ......

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Year-over-year Down 33.8%

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 2.5% in December, Ending Six-Month SlidePending home sales increased in December for the first time since May 2022 — following six consecutive months of declines — according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast and Midwest recorded month-over-month reductions, while the South and West posted...

Personal Income increased 0.2% in December; Spending decreased 0.2%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $49.5 billion (0.2 percent) in December, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $49.2 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $41.6 billion (0.2...

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% decrease in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 5.0% YoY, and...

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