Calculated Risk - RSS Feed

Finance and Economics

Latest articles

The Housing Conundrum

I've seen several housing booms and busts in my life. The biggest boom was the housing bubble in the mid-'00s, and the worst bust followed the bubble. Booms and bust have always been frequent in real estate.My Spidey senses are tingling again, however it isn't obvious why this time - or what the outcome will be.In general, demographics are very favorable...

June 18th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations

This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 316,048,776, as of yesterday 314,969,386. Daily change: 1.08 million.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose65.1%65.0%64.1%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated(millions)148.5147.8142.1≥1601 New Cases per Day311,43211,97614,274≤5,0002 Hospitalized313,53813,82615,717≤3,0002...

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 10%

From Merrill Lynch: Retail sales boosted our 2Q GDP tracking estimate up to 11% qoq saar from 9.5% previously. [June 18 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +9.0% (qoq ar). [June 16 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting ReportThe New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.7% for 2021:Q2 and 4.4% for...

Indiana Real Estate in May: Sales Up 25% YoY, Inventory Down 48% YoY

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. For for the entire state Indiana:Closed sales in May 2021 were 8,470, up 24.8% from 6,789 in May 2020.Active Listings...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of June 15th.From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Share of Borrowers in Forbearance Continues to DeclineForbearance volumes held relatively steady this week, falling by a modest 7K amid an expected mid-month lull...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.78 million in May, down 1.2% from April’s preliminary pace but up 44.1% from last May’s...

Existing Home Inventory: Local Markets

I'm gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I'm watching inventory very closely this year.As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly,...

June 17th COVID-19 New Cases, Vaccinations, Hospitalizations; Illinois Reaches 70% Goal

Congratulations to the residents of Illinois on joining the 70% club! Go for 80%!!!This data is from the CDC.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.Total doses administered: 314,969,386, as of yesterday 312,915,170. Daily: 2.05 million.COVID Metrics  TodayYesterdayWeekAgoGoal Percent over 18,One Dose65.0%64.7%64.0%≥70.0%1,2 Fully Vaccinated(millions)147.8146.5141.6≥1601...

Rhode Island Real Estate in May: Sales Up 21% YoY, Inventory Down 62% YoY

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. For for the entire state of Rhode Island:Closed sales (single family and condos) in May 2021 were 1,081, up 21.4% from...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 10% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.The occupancy rate is down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down double digits.From CoStar: STR:...

Discover, share and read the best on the web

Subscribe to RSS Feeds, Blogs, Podcasts, Twitter searches, Facebook pages, even Email Newsletters! Get unfiltered news feeds or filter them to your liking.

Get Inoreader
Inoreader - Subscribe to RSS Feeds, Blogs, Podcasts, Twitter searches, Facebook pages, even Email Newsletters!