Calculated Risk

Finance and Economics

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"Cargo Declines at Port of Long Beach in June"

Note: I'll have more on LA area port traffic once the Port of Los Angeles releases June statistics.From the Port of Long Beach: Cargo Declines at Port of Long Beach in JuneThe COVID-19 pandemic continued to drive down demand for goods in the second quarter of 2020, leading to an increase in canceled sailings and a decline in cargo containers shipped...

Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly.----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).On July 12th...

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend:• Schedule for Week of July 12, 2020Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled.From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 20 and DOW futures are up 199 (fair value).Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $40.25 per barrel and Brent at $42.93 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $57, and Brent was at...

July 12 COVID-19 Test Results

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.There were 729,141 test results...

July 11 COVID-19 Test Results; Highest Percent Positive Since Early May

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.There were 633,974 test results...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.2% Year-over-year

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 4 JulyU.S. hotel performance data for the week ending 4 July showed a slight decline in occupancy from the previous week, according to STR.28 June through 4 July 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):• Occupancy: 45.6% (-30.2%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$101.36 (-20.9%)•...

Schedule for Week of July 12, 2020

The key reports this week are June CPI, housing starts and retail sales.For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.----- Monday, July 13th -----No major economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, July 14th -----6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for...

July 10 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Tests, Record Positive Tests

The US is now conducting over 600,000 tests per day, and that might be enough to allow test-and-trace in some areas. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly.There were 825,635 test results...

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 36% Annual Rate Decline

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 36% Q2 decline is around 10% decline from Q1 (SA).Note: I'm just trying to make it clear the economy didn't decline by one-third in Q2.  Previously I just divided by 4 (an approximation) to show the quarter to quarter decline.  The actually formula is (1-.36) ^ .25 - 1 = -0.095...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Fall by 435K

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.From Black Knight: Forbearances See Largest Weekly Drop YetThe latest data from the McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that, following on last week’s decline, the number of active forbearance plans fell another 435,000...

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