Calculated Risk

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Schedule for Week of December 6, 2020

The key economic report this week is November CPI .----- Monday, Dec 7th -----3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve. ----- Tuesday, Dec 8th -----6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.----- Wednesday, Dec 9th -----7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications...

December 4 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations

I'm looking forward to not posting this data in a few months. Please stay healthy!The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase...

AAR: November Rail Carloads down 5.8% YoY, Intermodal Up 11.5% YoY

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Total U.S. carloads in November 2020 were down 5.8% from November 2019, their smallest year over-year percentage decline since August 2019. (The peak recent decline was 27.7% in May 2020.) In November, 9 of the 20 carload categories...

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of December 1st.From Black Knight: Forbearances Resume Trend of ImprovementAfter a two week stretch of – not unexpected – slight increases in the number of active forbearance plans, our weekly snapshot of daily...

Trade Deficit Increased to $63.1 Billion in October

From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.1 billion in October, up $1.0 billion from $62.1 billion in September, revised. October exports were $182.0 billion, $4.0 billion more than September exports. October imports were $245.1...

Comments on November Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was well below expectations, however employment for the previous two months were revised up slightly, combined.Government employment declined 99 thousand in November.   The job losses at the Federal level were due to letting go temporary decennial workers, however state and local governments...

November Employment Report: 245 Thousand Jobs Added, 6.7% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts...

Friday: Employment Report, Trade Deficit

My November Employment PreviewGoldman November Payrolls PreviewFriday:• At 8:30 AM ET.Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 500 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 6.7%.Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms through...

December 3 COVID-19 Test Results; Record Cases, Hospitalizations

Note: The data was distorted over the holiday weekend.The US is now averaging over 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day...

Goldman November Payrolls Preview

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 450k in November ... The breadth and severity of the virus resurgence suggests a larger labor market impact than during in the second wave ... We estimate the unemployment rate declined a tenth to 6.8% ... reflecting an increase in household employment...

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