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Q2 GDP Forecasts: 2.5% to 3.0%

From BofA: We have revised down our GDP forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 2.6% and 1.5% from 2.7% and 1.8% previously. [Q2 3.0% revised down from 3.5%] [May 20 estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman: we left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.6% (qoq ar) and our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 unchanged at -1.5%. [May 19 estimate]And...

Lawler: Lawler: The Sharp increase in Monthly Payments in Selected Metro Areas

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: The Sharp increase in Monthly Payments in Selected Metro AreasExcerpt: According to Mortgage News Daily, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for a prime borrower putting 20% down increased to 5.45% earlier this week from 3.14% a year ago.  Such an increase would result in a...

Black Knight: "Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Yet Another Record Low in April"

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Hit Yet Another Record Low in April, Driven by Continued Improvement Among Seriously Past-Due Loans• The national delinquency rate fell to 2.80% in April, down four basis points from March, hitting a new record low for the second consecutive month• Overall delinquencies are down nearly...

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 5% Year-over-year

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released this morning from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 14, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory moved convincingly into...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 5.9% Compared to Same Week in 2019

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Rates Outpace Pre-Pandemic Levels by 10%U.S. hotel performance improved from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through May 14.May 8-14, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):• Occupancy: 66.5% (-5.9%)• Average daily rate (ADR): $148.31 (+10.5%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $98.59...

More Analysis on April Existing Home Sales

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in AprilExcerpt: Sales in April (5.61 million SAAR) were down 2.4% from the previous month and were 5.9% below the April 2021 sales rate.The second graph shows existing home sales by month for 2021 and 2022. Sales declined 5.9% year-over-year...

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.61 million SAAR in April

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retract 2.4% in AprilExisting-home sales recorded a third straight month of declines, slipping slightly in April, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month sales were split amongst the four major U.S. regions, with two areas posting gains and the other two experiencing waning in April. Year-over-year...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 218,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending May 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 6,000 from 203,000 to 197,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,500, an increase of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average....

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales

Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand up from 203 thousand last week.• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 16.7, down from 17.6.• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association...

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in April

From housing economist Tom Lawler:Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in April, down 3.5% from March’s preliminary pace and down 6.5% from last...

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