Our Working Paper Series (WPS) disseminates economic research relevant to the various tasks and functions of the ECB , and provides a conceptual and empirical basis for policy-making. The Working Papers (WPs) constitute “work in progress”. They are p
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Liquidity transformation and Eurosystem credit operations

Banks in the euro area can generate high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) by borrowing central bank reserves from the Eurosystem against non-HQLA collateral. This paper quantifies the extent of this liquidity transformation and finds that on average EUR 0.92 of net HQLA are generated for each euro of credit provided by the Eurosystem. The paper then identifies...

Wed Apr 24, 2024 12:56
Mutual funds and safe government bonds: do returns matter?

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the demand for safe government debt to currency unhedged and hedged excess returns in a sample of US mutual funds. We find evidence of active rebalancing towards government bonds that offer relatively higher returns on an unhedged basis, in particular euro denominated securities. The size of the effect is large,...

Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:37
Dominant currency pricing in international trade of services

We analyze, for the first time, how firms choose the currency in which they price transactions in international trade of services and investigate, using direct evidence, whether the US dollar (USD) plays a dominant role in services trade. Drawing on a new granular dataset on extra-European Union exports of Portuguese firms broken down by currency, we...

Tue Apr 23, 2024 12:37
Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: evidence from Germany

We study how millions of granular and weekly household scanner data combined with machine learning can help to improve the real-time nowcast of German inflation. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of inflation: individual products, product groups, and headline inflation. At the individual product level, we construct a large set of...

Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:08
Decomposing systemic risk: the roles of contagion and common exposures

We evaluate the effects of contagion and common exposure on banks’ capital through a regression design inspired by the structural VAR literature and derived from the balance sheet identity. Contagion can occur through direct exposures, fire sales, and market-based sentiment, while common exposures result from portfolio overlaps. We estimate the structural...

Mon Apr 22, 2024 12:08
Central bank asset purchases and auction cycles revisited: new evidence from the euro area

This study provides new evidence on the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and auction cycles in the euro area. Using proprietary data on purchases of public sector securities implemented by the Eurosystem, the paper examines the flow effects of asset purchase programmes on 10-year government bond yields in secondary markets around...

Fri Apr 19, 2024 12:49

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