The Quarterly Journal of Economics - current issue

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The Return to Protectionism*

AbstractAfter decades of supporting free trade, in 2018 the United States raised import tariffs and major trade partners retaliated. We analyze the short-run impact of this return to protectionism on the U.S. economy. Import and retaliatory tariffs caused large declines in imports and exports. Prices of imports targeted by tariffs did not fall, implying...

How Acquisitions Affect Firm Behavior and Performance: Evidence from the Dialysis Industry*

AbstractMany industries have become increasingly concentrated through mergers and acquisitions, which in health care may have important consequences for spending and outcomes. Using a rich panel of Medicare claims data for nearly one million dialysis patients, we advance the literature on the effects of mergers and acquisitions by studying the precise...

Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects*

AbstractWe adapt simple tools from computational linguistics to construct a new measure of political risk faced by individual U.S. firms: the share of their quarterly earnings conference calls that they devote to political risks. We validate our measure by showing that it correctly identifies calls containing extensive conversations on risks that are...


Erratum to “The Short-Term Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers to the Poor: Experimental Evidence from Kenya”

Tables I and II in Haushofer and Shapiro (2016) erroneously ca-lculated FWER-adjusted p-values using only 1,000 bootstrap iterations. The corrected tables report bootstrapped p-values with 10,000 iterations.

Erratum to “Leveraging Lotteries for School Value-Added: Testing and Estimation”

Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework *

AbstractWhat shapes the optimal degree of progressivity of the tax and transfer system? On the one hand, a progressive tax system can counteract inequality in initial conditions and substitute for imperfect private insurance against idiosyncratic earnings risk. On the other hand, progressivity reduces incentives to work and to invest in skills, distortions...

Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe *

AbstractStarting in the early 1990s, countries in southern Europe experienced low productivity growth alongside declining real interest rates. We use data for manufacturing firms in Spain between 1999 and 2012 to document a significant increase in the dispersion of the return to capital across firms, a stable dispersion of the return to labor, and a...

Measuring the Sensitivity of Parameter Estimates to Estimation Moments *

AbstractWe propose a local measure of the relationship between parameter estimates and the moments of the data they depend on. Our measure can be computed at negligible cost even for complex structural models. We argue that reporting this measure can increase the transparency of structural estimates, making it easier for readers to predict the way violations...

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