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What Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Death Could Mean For 2020 And The Supreme Court

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away on Friday night — a pivotal moment in the history of the nation’s highest court. Ginsburg’s death is one of the biggest developments yet in 2020, a year that has already included the impeachment of the sitting president, a deadly virus killing nearly 200,000 Americans and an economic collapse. Ginsburg...

Politics Podcast: Our 2020 Senate Forecast Is Live!

By Galen Druke and Nate Silver and Galen Druke and Nate Silver   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS We’ve launched our 2020 Senate forecast, and it shows that the Democrats...

Why Our Forecast Says Democrats Are Slightly Favored To Win The Senate

In this episode of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke introduce our 2020 Senate forecast — and answer some listener questions.

How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week Asian American voters didn’t always lean Democratic. In 1992, less than a third of Asian Americans voted Democratic. But nowadays, most Asian Americans identify as Democrats, with more than half saying they plan to back Joe Biden and less than a third saying they’d vote for President...

Democrats Are Slight Favorites To Take Back The Senate

Democrats are slight favorites to regain control of the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, which launched today. But the map is wide open, with at least a dozen competitive races — none of which are certain pickups for Democrats — including some states where Democrats are playing defense. In fact, while it’s possible that Democrats...

2020 Senate Election Forecast

P S Find a race FiveThirtyEight Democrats are slightly favored to win the Senate Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Our presidential forecast determines which party gets control when the Senate is evenly split. Average outcome:...

What’s The Chance That Trump Loses The Popular Vote But Wins The Election Again?

Motion Graphics by Michael Tabb Elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at our presidential forecast and asks what weird (and not-so-weird) scenarios could shake out in the 2020 election.

North Carolina Is Already Rejecting Black Voters’ Mail-In Ballots More Often Than White Voters’

In every election, a small percentage of mail-in ballots get rejected. But this election is likely to have a whole lot of mail-in ballots. And in an election where a record number of voters are expected to cast their ballots by mail, you’re likely to hear a whole lot about ballots that don’t count, especially because voters of color have ballots rejected...

More And More Americans Aren’t Religious. Why Are Democrats Ignoring These Voters?

Democrats are once again doubling down on religion this year. Faith was on full display during the Democratic National Convention, where Joe Biden closed out the week with several pointed references to his Catholic faith. And the Biden campaign is also making an ambitious play for white evangelical Protestants and Mormons, two loyal Republican groups...

Election Update: Where Biden And Trump Have Gained The Most Ground

From 30,000 feet, the presidential race looks much as it did when we first launched our presidential election forecast in August. Joe Biden has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning compared to President Trump’s roughly 1 in 4 shot, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. Biden’s chances did dip down to a 2 in 3 shot after the Republican National Convention...

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