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Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our (mostly1) weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week On a very basic level, one big reason why President Trump lost reelection is that he wasn’t very popular. As of Nov. 3, his job approval rating was just 44.6 percent, and his disapproval rating was 52.6 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval average....

Why Polling Has Gotten So Hard

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke talks with two A+ rated pollsters — J. Ann Selzer and Patrick Murray — about the challenges of polling and how to fix them. [Related: Polling 101: What Happened To The Polls In 2016 — And What You Should Know About Them In 2020]

Politics Podcast: How To Make Polls Better

By Galen Druke   More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS In the wake of the 2020 election, there’s been plenty of discussion about the accuracy and usefulness of polling. Nationally, the polling error was about...

5 Ways Biden Might Differ From — Or Agree With — Trump On Technology

Most political obsessives trying to guess who President-elect Joe Biden might pick to be in his Cabinet are focused on the flashy positions: secretary of state, secretary of defense, attorney general. Then there are us nerds, who are keen to find out who will be the new chair of the Federal Communications Commission. President Trump loves to talk and...

There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket Voting In 2020

The narrative of the 2020 election is that Joe Biden did pretty well … but down-ballot Democrats, not so much. And while this is true if you look simply at the results — Republicans defended most of their vulnerable Senate seats and gained several seats in the House — there wasn’t actually as much split-ticket voting as you might think. For decades...

Democrats’ 2020 House And Senate Map Could Spell Trouble In Future Elections

In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the challenges Democrats faced in House, Senate and state legislature races — and whether it was a good use of polling to survey preferences for the 2024 Republican primary before President Trump has even left the White House. [Related: There Wasn’t That Much Split-Ticket...

Politics Podcast: Why Did Down-Ballot Democrats Have Such A Mediocre Showing?

By Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver and Galen Druke, Perry Bacon Jr., Clare Malone and Nate Silver   ...

Do You Buy That … Suburban Voters Helped Biden?

What Makes A One-Term President?

Donald Trump is officially a one-term president, the first to fail a reelection bid in nearly 30 years. But history shows his loss isn’t surprising, given the circumstances. One-term presidents used to be a lot more common. Take the period between 1837 (when Andrew Jackson’s second term ended) and 1860, for example — no president served more than one...

What We’ve Learned About The Biden Administration From His Staffing Choices So Far

Last week, President-elect Joe Biden selected many of his top White House aides. This week, he’s announced some top Cabinet and national security posts. There are many, many jobs left to fill — most notably defense secretary and attorney general — but here’s what we’re learning so far about Biden, the Biden administration and how he’ll govern … It’s...

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